In May, Google unveiled its most significant search redesign in 25 years: an intelligent search box that expands for longer queries and accepts multimodal inputs including videos, pictures, and files. The redesign is Google's bid to hold its dominant position as AI-powered search alternatives gain traction.

"This is how Google wins," said our analyst Nate Elliott on a recent episode of "Behind the Numbers." "Google wins in AI by convincing people that they don't need to go to a different place to get AI answers."

Google is betting that incremental improvements to familiar interfaces will prove more effective than radical reinvention. That bet comes as the company faces mounting competition from OpenAI's ChatGPT and other AI chatbots, and works to integrate AI across its entire product ecosystem.

How significant is Google's search redesign?

Analysts are divided on the magnitude of Google's latest update. Elliott rated the intelligent search box a "three or four out of 10" in importance, noting that Google has been gradually introducing AI features for years through AI Overviews and AI Mode.

"They've been doing stuff like this for years," Elliott said. "This feels much more evolutionary to me than revolutionary."

However, EMARKETER analyst Jacob Bourne assigned the update a seven out of 10 in significance, arguing that any change from Google carries outsize impact due to its central position on the internet.

"From Google's perspective, I think this makes the AI Mode experience more akin to the standard chatbot experience, and so I think it helps it stay competitive," Bourne said.

To analysts, the new search box is Google's attempt to merge traditional search with conversational AI without forcing users to change their behavior. Familiar interface, new AI capabilities underneath: the goal is to keep users from migrating to standalone chatbot platforms.

The zero-click search dilemma

The redesign accelerates Google's evolution toward zero-click searches, where users get answers without clicking through to external websites.

However, Elliott added context: "Even before AI Overviews existed, almost half of Google searches were zero-click searches," he said.

Based on his available data, he said AI features have pushed the zero-click rate higher, but more than a quarter of searches still result in clicks to external sites.

"The prognostications of doom that this is the death knell for the open web are pretty grandly overstated," Elliott said, noting that Google and other AI companies continue experimenting with how to present information, including the number and visibility of links in AI-generated responses.

The zero-click shift continues, but its toll on the open web remains uncertain. AI companies keep adjusting how they balance AI-generated content against traditional web links.

Google closes in on OpenAI's consumer AI dominance

Despite ChatGPT's current lead as the most popular AI chatbot, Google is rapidly gaining ground. Google's AI chatbots will be within approximately 1 million users of ChatGPT by the end of 2026 and will decisively overtake it in early 2027, according to EMARKETER's March forecast.

Google's AI Mode, integrated into search results, now has 1 billion monthly users, potentially more than Gemini itself. When combined and deduplicated, Google's various AI interfaces position the company to dominate consumer AI adoption.

"There was never a chance that they weren't going to win or at least be in a very competitive top two in this category because they have so many advantages on distribution," Elliott said.

Google's structural advantages include the world's number one search engine, browser (Chrome), mobile operating system (Android), email service (Gmail), and numerous other widely used products.

OpenAI's head start as a startup let it take risks and move fast. But once AI goes mainstream, Google's distribution advantage across its product ecosystem makes its dominance in consumer AI nearly inevitable.

Listen to the full episode.

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