The news: Holding company Dentsu lowered its 2026 global ad spending forecast slightly in its midyear estimates, Mediapost reports, citing “economic uncertainty tied to geopolitical tensions.”

• Global ad spending will still grow by 5% YoY, down slightly from the 5.1% growth forecast in December 2025.
• By region, the Americas’ 2026 ad growth outlook was trimmed to 4.8%, while EMEA was lowered to 3.6%. APAC was the exception, growing half a point to 5.9%.
• However, Dentsu’s 2027 forecast was revised upward, from 5.1% to 5.5%.

Behind the numbers: Our forecasts also support that geopolitical tensions are weighing on ad spending growth.

Under a sustained energy shock triggered by the Iran war, ad spending will decrease by billions:

• Total US media ad spending would reach $460.24 billion in 2026 under a sustained energy shock, compared with $476.18 billion in the base case, per our forecast.