The economic fallout from the United States and Israel’s war with Iran is rippling across the global economy, heightening recession risks in the US and intensifying strain abroad. The impacts extend across the marketing and commerce landscapes.

In this live FAQ, we’ll track how the latest developments of the conflict play out across companies operating in Europe. Don’t forget to check out our separate FAQs for countries operating in North America and the Middle East and Asia.

Could prolonged conflict trigger a regional recession?

Yes, a prolonged conflict could push parts of Europe toward recession, though the outcome hinges on how long disruptions persist.

In the near term, the main risk is a negative supply shock from higher energy prices. Europe is especially vulnerable because it meets over half of its energy needs from imports, leaving it more exposed to sustained price spikes and supply disruptions. Higher energy costs can also feed into wages and services, stoking inflation and potentially forcing tighter monetary policy, which would further slow growth.

That said, a short, contained conflict is unlikely to trigger a recession on its own. But a prolonged disruption to energy flows or shipping routes could tip the economy from sluggish growth into contraction.

How are rising fuel costs reshaping EU retail and ecommerce spending, and which sectors are most exposed?

Rising energy costs are weighing on European consumers and businesses alike. More so than the US, higher household energy bills in particular are squeezing disposable income and driving sharper cutbacks in discretionary spending. Mid-market segments—particularly apparel, home goods, and casual dining—are under pressure as consumers retrench and trade down.

For businesses, elevated oil and gas prices are pushing up production, transport, and operating costs across the value chain, while disruptions to key shipping routes are complicating cross-border trade. The combination is eroding margins and slowing activity.

The ripple effects extend into manufacturing, logistics, and energy-intensive industries, where input cost increases and trade friction are raising the risk of a broader slowdown.

Are insurers still insuring vessels in the Strait of Hormuz?

The UK-based Lloyd’s Market Association said that it would continue to offer insurance for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the cost of insurance has leapt to about 5% of the value of a ship, per Bloomberg—a nearly fivefold increase from even the early days of the Iran conflict. During times of minimal conflict, insurance costs are typically a fraction of a percent of a ship’s value.

Few ships have been quoted for insurance since the war started; those that have are mainly linked to China, India, and Pakistan, per Bloomberg.

How are social platforms responding to the influx of war-related content in Europe?

Content about ongoing conflicts typically leads platforms toward stronger enforcement measures, particularly in Europe, where regulations are stricter. A major feature of this conflict that platforms are grappling with is state-linked, AI-generated propaganda. Measures like the Digital Services Act require that platforms remove illegal content while assessing and mitigating systemic risks like disinformation.

Rather than delete all content outright, given that news content is generally permitted, platforms are working to reduce the visibility of unverified war content. Platforms are also prioritizing measures like adding friction through content warning labels.