A lot will change when third-party cookies are deprecated in Chrome, but some general programmatic ad spending patterns will stay the same. Programmatic direct will remain the most popular transaction method, while mobile will keep its sizable lead over other device categories.

The open exchange continues its long descent

• Open auctions are out of vogue. When we started forecasting open exchange ad spending in 2013, it represented nearly three-quarters (74.5%) of the programmatic display market. But since then, advertisers have invested more heavily in private marketplaces and closed ecosystems like social media platforms and retail media networks (RMNs), which fall under programmatic direct.

• Direct pathways are all the rage. Advertisers are trimming the fat (e.g., inventory resellers, underperforming or redundant partners) from real-time bidding transactions to reduce hidden fees, minimize risk of data leakage, and decrease their carbon footprints. In the case of CTV, prioritizing direct pathways can theoretically help with frequency capping.
• Programmatic is refocusing around first-party data. As signal loss reaches a fever pitch with cookie deprecation, ad buyers and sellers are harnessing their own consumer data for programmatic activation across transaction methods. Six in 10 buyers reported they’d be focusing somewhat or significantly more on ad placements with publishers with first-party data in 2024, per November 2023 survey data from the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB).